GBP
Sterling notched back-to-back weekly gains last week, chalking up a fifth positive week in six as a result, with the market continuing to display a preference for more risk sensitive currencies, despite the stock market rally fizzling out.
The pound’s gains came as the Government continued its attempts to restore fiscal credibility, announcing swathing tax hikes and spending cuts in order to plug the sizeable fiscal black hole; markets were buoyed, however, by news that most spending cuts would not come into effect for at least 2 years.
Looking ahead, this week is relatively quiet in terms of event risks, besides a slew of PMI figures due out on Wednesday, likely to show both the manufacturing and services sectors continuing to lose momentum.
EUR
While the dollar was broadly softer last week, the common currency failed to take full advantage, slipping to its second modest weekly loss in three, thrice rejecting a move above the 200-day moving average, a level that has not been broken since summer 2021.
Despite worries about energy security having waned, largely due to the warmer than expected weather, the EUR faced headwinds after a deluge of dovish ECB reports and speakers substantially raised the prospects of a more dovish 50bps hike being delivered next month.
This week, the calendar is also rather quiet in the eurozone, besides the aforementioned PMI figures, and minutes from the latest ECB meeting being due out on Thursday.
USD
The strong bull run enjoyed by the greenback since the start of the year has rather fizzled out of late, with the buck running out of bullish catalysts after a notable improvement in risk appetite, and terminal fed funds rate pricing having stabilised around 5%.
Consequently, the greenback traded largely unchanged for a second straight week against a basket of peers, continuing to nurse the almost 4% weekly decline seen at the start of the month, with longs having not yet been tempted to re-enter the market.
This week, shortened due to Thanksgiving, provides few notable events on the horizon, with Wednesday evening’s FOMC minutes the only notable calendar point, likely being relatively dovish in nature, teeing up a downshift to a more modest 50bps hike at the December meeting.
World News
Following the collapse of major crypto company FTX, it has been revealed that they owe creditors a staggering $3.1 billion, revealing more issues within the crypto market and highlighting the extreme lack of regulation. FTX filed for bankruptcy in the US last week says it owes US$1.45bn to it’s top 10 creditors but has refused to name any. FTX’s previous bankruptcy filings revealed more than one million people and businesses could be owed money following its collapse.
Trump has announced that he will be running for president in 2024, aiming to make a dramatic return to the White House following his loss to Joe Biden in 2020. Trump bids to become only the second ever to be elected to two non-consecutive terms in office. First he has to gain the Republican nomination, and with many of his previous backers now turning to Ron DeSantis this could cause Trump problems if he is to be selected in 2024.
Data Releases
| Date | Region | Release | Previous | Consensus |
| Wednesday 23rd November | NZ | RBZ Interest Rate Decision | 3.50% | 4.25% |
| Wednesday 23rd November | EU | Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs | ||
| Wednesday 23rd November | UK | Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs | ||
| Wednesday 23rd November | US | Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs | ||
| Wednesday 23rd November | US | FOMC Meeting Minutes | ||
| Share Index | Prev. Close | Open |
| FTSE100 | 7385.52 | 7385.52 |
| DAX | 14431.86 | 14395.53 |
| CAC40 | 6644.46 | 6625.1 |