Key Points
Positive appetite helped boost GBP.
Canada and Australia Interest Rate Decisions this week.
Non-Farm Employment expecting another positive figure.
Market News
GBP
Sterling notched its first weekly advance in four last week, benefitting from the broadly softer greenback, amid a quiet economic docket, and a significant improvement in risk appetite as the week progressed
From a technical view, cable has done remarkably well of late to hold above the 200-day moving average, and to reclaim the 1.20 handle, perhaps emboldening the bulls a touch in the near-term
Looking ahead, this week’s UK calendar is devoid of any particularly interesting releases, besides Friday’s monthly GDP report, likely to show that the year started with rather sluggish economic momentum
EUR
The common currency also managed to take advantage of the weaker dollar last week, chalking up its best weekly advance since mid-January, bouncing solidly from the 1.05 handle
Another round of hawkish rhetoric from various ECB speakers assisted the EUR, as did last week’s inflation report, which showed core inflation rising to a fresh record high last month, leading markets to continue repricing the future rate path, now seeing the terminal rate sitting north of 4%
This week, things are a little quieter, with no top-tier releases due from across the continent, and revised Q1 GDP figures unlikely to command particularly much attention
USD
The greenback struggled last week, losing ground against a basket of peers for the first week in five, facing headwinds as Treasury yields ticked marginally lower at the long end of the curve, and risk appetite improved significantly, both coming after better than expected ISM PMI figures
Nevertheless, the retracement in the USD was, perhaps, less about anything that happened last week, and more about the bulls simply running out of steam, with the hawkish Fed repricing having run its course, meaning further upside catalysts were somewhat thin on the ground
Speaking of the Fed, Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill (Tues & Weds) will be one of the main focuses this week, along with Friday’s labour market report, with nonfarm payrolls set to increase by around 215k, and unemployment likely to remain at 3.4%
World News
The UN have agreed a treaty, after two weeks, which agrees that two thirds of the worlds ocean do not belong to anyone. The treaty will provide a legal framework for establishing vast marine protected areas and all activities that occur in the high seas will be subject to environmental impact assessments, with member states held responsible for their actions.
The Russian frontline at Bakhmut, could collapse as it continues to face ammunition shortages, which could cause forces to retreat. This will weaken the entire Russian frontline, which will be a huge blow for the Russian forces, as they continue to struggle in the war, following their minimal battlefield success in recent months.
Data Releases
| Date | Region | Release | Previous | Consensus |
| Tuesday 7th March | AU | Interest Rate Decision | 3.35% | 3.60% |
| Wednesday 8th March | CA | Interest Rate Decision | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| Wednesday 8th March | US | JOLTS Job Openings | 11.01m | 10.61m |
| Friday 10th March | US | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.30% | 0.30% |
| Friday 10th March | US | Non-Farm Employment Change | 517k | 206k |
Indices
| Share Index | Prev. Close | Open |
| FTSE100 | 7947.11 | 7947.11 |
| DAX | 15578.39 | 15597.9 |
| CAC40 | 7348.12 | 7385.75 |